Friday, January 05, 2007

Analyst: Sequel to Rockstar’s Bully Unlikely

Even a week before Bully’s release, most didn’t have a clue what to expect from the off-beat adventure from Rockstar Games. Was it an action game? Were they simply trying to stir up controversy while working on Grand Theft Auto 4? As it turns out, they simply made a surprisingly great game, as evidenced by 1UP lavishing it with a score of 10.Game Politics recently contacted analyst talking head Michael Pachter, otherwise known as managing director of research at Wedbush Morgan Securities, about the game’s sales. Pachter predicts Bully has sold no more than 400,000 units since its October 2006 release and will eventually lose steam somewhere around 800,000 units in the coming months. With less than a million sold, Pachter believes a sequel is unlikely.

“…at an average wholesale price of around $30, so it will likely generate around $24 million in revenues. Since the game took three years to develop, it likely cost Take-Two close to $15 million in R&D, and my guess is that the company did no better than to break even. I would NOT expect a sequel,” he told the website.

1UP contacted Rockstar about Pachter’s statements and received a typical “no comment” from the company.

But, let’s get this straight. According to Pachter, Bully will make roughly $9 million in profit (excluding the marketing budget) and sell almost a million copies, in spite of being a completely new franchise in a mostly undefined genre, relying almost completely on word-of-mouth and the Rockstar brand’s reputation for sales, yet it’s considered a failure? No matter what, Bully appears it will make it a profit, and considering the industry’s reliance on sequels and franchises, isn’t that a win for gamers and Rockstar?

This wouldn’t be the first time Rockstar’s scratched out a sequel, though, as Manhunt never received one, either. Still, here’s hoping we’ll eventually have a chance to experience Jimmy Hopkins’ college life.

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